Market Update: GBP, EUR, and USD Trends

British Pound (GBP)

The Pound remains under pressure, particularly against the Euro, where it has slipped to six-week lows. Sentiment has been weighed down by a combination of weak UK data, a cooling services PMI, and persistently high public borrowing. While these factors matter, analysts note that markets are largely looking past day-to-day economic releases and focusing on the risks surrounding November’s autumn budget. Until then, the outlook for a sustained Pound recovery appears limited.

Euro (EUR)

The Euro has managed to hold its ground, supported by cautious market sentiment and a softer U.S. Dollar. Gains have been underpinned by improved German economic sentiment, although they remain capped ahead of upcoming data releases. France’s recent credit rating downgrade continues to cast a shadow, and investors are watching closely for September PMI and confidence figures. Any disappointment there could put the Euro back under pressure. Meanwhile, cautious signals from ECB officials keep movement restrained and highlight the ongoing uncertainty in the Eurozone.

U.S. Dollar (USD)

The Dollar has been trading in relatively narrow ranges as markets await fresh direction from the Federal Reserve. After a recent 25-basis point rate cut, a brief dip in the Dollar was quickly reversed when the Fed highlighted persistent inflation risks. Attention now turns to the upcoming PCE inflation data. A stronger reading could give the Dollar further support, though uncertainty over the Fed’s rate path continues to drive investor sentiment.

If you’d like to discuss your exchange rates, have any questions about the market, or want to explore how we can support your business, please get in touch with our team.

British Pound (GBP)
The British Pound saw a lift this week as UK retail sales rose 0.6% in July, beating expectations of 0.3%. The stronger-than-expected data helped GBP recover ground against both the Euro and the US Dollar, offering short-term support after recent losses. However, subdued annual growth figures and concerns over the upcoming UK November Budget continue to weigh on sentiment, limiting the potential for a long-term rally.

Euro (EUR)
The Euro remained under pressure after Eurozone retail sales fell 0.5% in July, missing forecasts and signalling ongoing weakness in consumer demand. While EUR gained slightly against risk-sensitive currencies in a cautious market mood, it slipped against both GBP and USD. With few new economic drivers, traders are now focused on the upcoming Eurozone GDP data for clues on growth prospects.

US Dollar (USD)
The US Dollar weakened as softer labour market figures fuelled speculation of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut later this year. The Dollar Index fell 0.2% ahead of the highly anticipated US nonfarm payrolls report, which could provide further direction. Analysts at Bank of America note that while the Dollar is now closer to fair value after years of overvaluation, structural factors point toward a gradual USD weakening trend in the months ahead.

Key Takeaway
With GBP/USD testing support levels and EUR/USD struggling to find momentum, upcoming data releases – particularly US payrolls and Eurozone GDP – are likely to drive volatility. Businesses with international exposure may want to review their FX hedging strategies ahead of Q4.

GBP

The British Pound continues to trade under pressure as markets anticipate a 25-basis point rate cut from the Bank of England. Softer UK services data and a rise in unemployment have dampened sentiment, though persistent inflation and stable consumer spending offer some resilience. While overall outlook remains cautious, some analysts believe Sterling may be oversold, leaving room for a modest recovery if the BoE signals a gradual policy path.

EUR 
The Euro is facing headwinds following a sharp decline in Eurozone investor confidence, partly due to disappointment over the EU-US trade deal. That said, upcoming data releases – including services PMI and producer price inflation – could provide support if they point to stronger economic activity and rising price pressures. Such outcomes may reinforce expectations of further ECB tightening and limit downside for the Euro.

USD 
The U.S. Dollar has slipped following a weaker-than-expected July jobs report and downward revisions to prior figures, fuelling speculation of a Fed rate cut in September. However, markets are watching the ISM services PMI for signs of economic strength that could temper dovish expectations. For now, policy uncertainty and mixed economic signals continue to drive cautious sentiment toward the Dollar.

GBP

The British Pound strengthened as global risk sentiment improved and equity markets rallied. While concerns remain over the UK’s fiscal position, Sterling was buoyed by delayed U.S. tariffs and optimism around potential trade negotiations. Analysts caution that the Pound is still susceptible to volatility, budgetary pressures, and possible rate cuts should economic data deteriorate. Sterling’s trajectory remains closely tied to overall market sentiment.

EUR

The Euro held firm despite weak retail sales, benefiting from its safe-haven status during ongoing global trade uncertainty. Investors remain focused on tariff negotiations with the U.S., particularly concerning autos and pharmaceuticals. Germany is pushing for swift agreement, whereas France and Spain prefer a tougher approach. With little fresh eurozone data, market attention remains on geopolitical developments.

USD

The U.S. Dollar faces continued pressure as markets digest tariff uncertainty and shifting sentiment. Early trade tensions briefly lifted the Dollar, but recent negotiation signals from the White House have softened its safe-haven demand. Despite recent declines, the Dollar is underpinned by strong economic fundamentals and higher interest rates, though short-term volatility is expected to persist.

If you’d like to review your exchange rates, have questions about the market, or want to learn more about our solutions, please get in touch.

Daily FX Market Update – 24th June 2025

Welcome to your daily market update, bringing you the latest insights into the major currency movements shaping global markets.

GBP – Sterling Finds Support Amid Middle East Ceasefire

The British Pound strengthened following the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. This development eased fears of a broader regional conflict and improved global investor sentiment.

As geopolitical tensions subsided, oil prices fell, weakening the U.S. Dollar and offering support to Sterling. However, any further upside for the Pound may be capped by domestic headwinds, including uncertainty over the UK’s economic outlook and growing speculation that the Bank of England could move to cut interest rates in the coming months.

EUR – Euro Slips on Improved Risk Appetite

The Euro edged lower as investors shifted toward risk-sensitive currencies in response to easing geopolitical concerns. Typically viewed as a more stable option during periods of market stress, the Euro saw reduced demand amid a broader return to risk-on sentiment.

Despite this dip, the single currency remains highly reactive to geopolitical developments. Any renewed instability or volatility—particularly in the Middle East—could quickly restore demand for the Euro as a perceived safe haven.

USD – Dollar Weakens as Safe-Haven Demand Fades

The U.S. Dollar lost ground after news of the Israel-Iran ceasefire dampened demand for traditional safe-haven assets. Markets interpreted the de-escalation as a signal of reduced risk, pushing investors toward more growth-oriented currencies.

That said, the situation remains fragile. Any renewed tensions—especially involving strategic areas like the Strait of Hormuz—could lead to a swift rebound for the Dollar, reinforcing its status as a global refuge during periods of crisis.

Looking Ahead

As always, the FX markets remain sensitive to geopolitical events and central bank policy speculation. If you would like to discuss your upcoming currency requirements, review your current exchange strategy, or explore how we can help navigate market volatility, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.

GBP – Sterling Strengthens on Trade Optimism and Economic Resilience

The British Pound strengthened last week, buoyed by the announcement of a UK-EU trade agreement expected to boost the UK economy by £9 billion. Sterling experienced volatility midweek due to mixed signals from the Bank of England and inflation data driven by one-off factors. However, gains returned as UK Services PMI and retail sales data came in strong. With no major UK economic releases ahead, broader market sentiment is expected to guide GBP movements this week.

EUR – Euro Pressured Despite Initial Gains

The Euro rose early in the week, supported by a weaker U.S. Dollar and positive sentiment surrounding a UK-EU trade reset. However, downward pressure emerged following a fall in German producer prices and growing speculation of an ECB rate cut. A surprise contraction in Eurozone PMIs further weighed on the currency. This week, attention shifts to Germany’s inflation data, where softer readings may increase pressure on the ECB to act at its June meeting.

USD – Greenback Slips Amid Political and Economic Uncertainty

The U.S. Dollar weakened last week, as rising federal debt concerns and the postponement of planned tariff hikes on EU imports undercut investor confidence. Although stronger-than-expected U.S. PMI data offered brief support, the delay of a proposed 50% tariff by Donald Trump reignited selling pressure. This week’s focus will be on key data releases, including durable goods orders, GDP, and the core PCE inflation index, which could sway markets amid ongoing speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts.